As a community health worker, what are some benefits of applying probability concepts to solve community health-related problems? Would your decisions suffer without probability concepts? Explain your answer. Find a peer-reviewed article that describes the benefits of applying probability concepts to solve problems in a particular field of interest to you (e.g., community policing, urban planning, public health, etc.). Then describe and discuss this article
Probability has been described as the law of chance. Combining statistic and Probability gives the values that are needed to determining the chances of maximizing production when it comes to business. For health related problems, these problems mostly follow a given pattern which can be modeled into a formula with the help of statistical calculations. Through the use of statistical measures of central tendencies like the mean, median, mode and standard deviation, it is very easy to describe a given population with certainty. Through the given measures, we can be in a position to determine with certainty the future and forecast on what is expected to happen using the data that is already in place.
Statistical measures are done within a given level of significance, giving room for making a wrong decision thereby having the error in the study. This makes these environmental health problems that might be under study to have at least 90% confidence interval for having the correct result given. This confidence interval can be increased up to 99%.
According to Prasad & Muraleedharan (2007), through environmental health studies, using the past occurrence, we can confidently foretell what is expected to happen in future using statistical concept and methodologies. These methodologies include linear models and forecasting. Any health related problems that are to solved based on present or past information is directly related to probability and it is solved mathematically.
Were we to do away with statistics and probability, the first problem we would have is that we would draw wrong inferences from data, because interpretation of data heavily relies on statistics. Moreover, drug testing is usually developed with the help of statisticians who measures the effectiveness of the drugs on the population under question. To enhance accuracy of the data under question we really need probability and statistics, otherwise we would either have solutions that are to the extreme or incomprehensible.
Prasad B.M, Muraleedharan V.R, (2007). Community Health Workers: a Review of Concepts, Practice and Policy Concerns. HRH Global Resource Center